Thursday, November 19, 2009

One Lump or Two?

Everyone now seems to be commenting on how everyone is commenting on the state of the economy. The latest craze is asking or being asked, “When do you think we’ll get out of this for good?” or, “Do you think the recession is over?” or, “Are the recent positive signs going to last?” For a while now, I’ve been fond of responding, “It depends on whose tea leaves you choose to read.”

About a month ago (ok, sorry - I’ve been busy), New York research firm, ChubbyBrain, produced a lengthy report, summarized in an Xconomy article, indicating that venture investing was turning a corner. They noted a 16% decrease in investment in Q3 from 08 to 09, but a 14% increase from 2Q09 to 3Q09. Sounds like a recovery in the making, right? Not so fast.

The next day, Dow Jones VentureSource reported a 6% decline from Q2 to Q3. So who to believe?

I find this quite amusing, particularly on the heels of a weekly newsletter from noted consultant, Alan Weiss. Ten days prior to these conflicting reports, Alan’s weekly “Monday Morning Memo” presciently anticipates it. Not the content, but the concept. I loved what he said there. To paraphrase, he notes that there are those who will profit from downturns in the economy, so it’s in their interest to propagate bad news. Most of us would rather see the pendulum swinging in the other direction.

Think it. Feel it. See it. Act it. So much of the ‘crisis’ is in our heads. I’ve said it here before – those of us with some grey hair have been through this and know we will not only come out of it, but we’ll be stronger! Don’t listen to those 28 year old CNN reporters who think the sky is falling. Think, feel, see and act on positive information. Find opportunities and capitalize on them. I’m having a pretty good year.

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